Scenario ShakeMaps

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Scenario ShakeMaps for Southern California

The USGS has produced a series of scenario ShakeMaps for southern California posted here: USGS Scenario ShakeMap archive.

UCERF Earthquake Probabilities

Using a Newport Inglewood M7.2 and the first shock, UCERF probabilities for subsequent events are:

Newport Inglewood: Main Shock
Palos Verdes: 2.01%
Compton: 1.58%
Anaheim: 0.38%
Newport-Inglewood (another rupture): 0.32%
Hollywood: 0.28%
Redondo Canyon: 0.27%
Santa Monica: 0.25%

USGS Scenario ShakeMaps for selected Events

Scenario EQ UCERF3 Prob (%) ShakeMap
Newport Inglewood: First Event Newport Inglewood M7.2
Palos Verdes 2.01% Palos Verdes M7.4
Compton 1.58% Compton M7.5
Anaheim 0.38% Anaheim M6.4
Hollywood 0.28% Hollywood M6.7
Redondo Canyon 0.27% Redondo Canyon M6.7
Santa Monica 0.25% Santa Monica M7.4
Puente Hills <0.25% Puente Hills M7.0

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